Iran's leadership and allies are bracing for what they would regard as a dreadful outcome of the imminent U.S. presidential election: A return to power of Donald Trump.
Opinion polls suggest the Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close contest. But Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are concerned that Trump could well triumph on November 5 and this could spell more trouble for them.
Iran's main concern is the potential for Trump to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran's nuclear sites, conduct targeted assassinations and reimpose his 'maximum pressure policy' through heightened sanctions on their oil industry, according to Iranian, Arab and Western officials.
They anticipate that Trump, who was president in 2017-21, will exert utmost pressure on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to cave in by accepting a nuclear containment deal on terms set by himself and Israel.
This potential change in U.S. leadership could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East balance of power, and might reshape Iran's foreign policy and economic prospects.
Analysts argue that whether the next U.S. administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the leverage it once held - largely due to Israel's year-old military campaign aimed at degrading the Islamic Republic's armed proxies, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However, Trump's stance is perceived as more detrimental to Iran due to his more automatic support for Israel, they added.
'Trump will either put very tough conditions on Iran or let Israel carry out targeted strikes on its nuclear facilities. He is fully endorsing a military action against Iran,' Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, said.
'It's Netanyahu's dream day to have Trump back in the White House,' he told Reuters.
A senior Iranian official who declined to be named told Reuters Tehran was 'prepared for all scenarios. We have (for decades) consistently found ways to export oil, bypassing harsh U.S. sanctions..., and have strengthened our ties with the rest of the world no matter who was in the White House.'
But another Iranian official said a Trump victory would be 'a nightmare. He will raise pressure on Iran to please Israel..., make sure oil sanctions are fully enforced. If so, (our) establishment will be economically paralysed.'
In an election speech in October, Trump stated his unwillingness to go to war with Iran, but said Israel should 'hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later', in response to Iran's missile attack on Israel on October 1
Israel retaliated with airstrikes on Iranian military targets, especially missile production sites, on October 26.
Iran's choices are limited going forward, analysts say.
'The reality is: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green light to do whatever he wants,' said Hassan Hassan, an author and researcher on Islamic groups. 'Trump is much worse (than Harris) for Iran.'
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