Israel-Iran strikes: What are the worst-case scenarios?
Friday night saw Israel and Iran exchange a barrage of air strikes
For now the fighting between Israel and Iran seems restricted to the two nations. At the United Nations and elsewhere there have been widespread calls for restraint.
But what if they fall on deaf ears? What if the fighting escalates and expands?
Here are just a few possible, worst-case scenarios.
America gets dragged in
For all the US denials, Iran clearly believes American forces endorsed and at least tacitly supported Israel's attacks.
Iran could strike US targets across the Middle East – such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the region. Iran's proxy forces - Hamas and Hezbollah – may be much diminished but its supportive militias in Iraq remain armed and intact.
The US feared such attacks were a possibility and withdrew some personnel. In its public messaging, the US has warned Iran firmly of the consequences of any attack on American targets.
What might happen if an American citizen were killed, say, in Tel Aviv or elsewhere?
Donald Trump might find himself forced to act. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been accused of wanting to drag the US into helping him defeat Iran.
Military analysts say only the US has the bombers and bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate the deepest of Iranian nuclear facilities, especially that of Fordow.
Trump promised his MAGA constituency he would not start any so-called "forever wars" in the Middle East. But equally many Republicans support both Israel's government and its view that now is the time to seek regime change in Tehran.
But if America were to become an active combatant, that would represent a huge escalation with a long, potentially devastating consequential tail.
Gulf nations get dragged in
If Iran failed to damage Israel's well-protected military and other targets, then it could always aim its missiles at softer targets in the Gulf, especially countries that Iran believes aided and abetted its enemies over the years.
There are lots of energy and infrastructure targets in the region. Remember Iran was accused of striking Saudi Arabia's oil fields in 2019 and its Houthi proxies hit targets in the UAE in 2022.
Since then there has been a reconciliation of sorts between Iran and some countries in the region.
But these countries play host to US airbases. Some also – discreetly – helped defend Israel from Iranian missile attack last year.
If the Gulf were attacked, then it too might demand American warplanes come to its defence as well as Israel's.
A demonstrator holds a sign during a protest against Israeli strikes on Iran in New York
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