Saturday, 14 June 2025

Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble

 Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble

firefighter stands in front of damaged buildingImage source,Getty Images
Image caption,

Some Israeli attacks hit populated areas in Tehran and other places

Under this scenario, he might hope that the unprecedented strikes start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic Republic.

He said in a statement on Friday evening that "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime."

Many Iranians are unhappy with the state of the economy, the lack of freedom of speech, women's rights, and minority rights.

Israel's attack is posing a real threat to Iran's leadership.

The strikes have killed the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the chief of staff of the armed forces, and many other high-ranking IRGC chiefs, and the Israeli attack is not yet over. Iran retaliated in the afternoon, with the Revolutionary Guard saying it carried out attacks against "dozens of targets, military centres and airbases".

The situation escalated quickly and after Iran's retaliatory missile attacks, Netanyahu said, "More is on the way".

More of Iran's leaders could be targeted.

Israel may calculate that the attacks and killings could unsettle the regime and open the way for a popular uprising.

At least this is what Netanyahu hopes for.

But this is a gamble - a big one.

There is no evidence that such a chain reaction will start in the first place, but even if it starts, it is unclear where such a process might lead.

Those with the most power in Iran are the people who control the armed forces and the economy, and most of that is in the hands of hardliners in the IRGC and some other unelected bodies.

They don't need to stage a coup because they are already in power, and they could take Iran in a more confrontational direction.

FULL ARTICLE AT: Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble

No comments:

Post a Comment