Delhi: India seeks G20 consensus as Ukraine war shadow looms

 Delhi: India seeks G20 consensus as Ukraine war shadow looms

India has turned the G20 into a diplomatic spectacle that has never been seen before.

After 200 meetings held in 60 Indian cities through the year, the campaign to turn India's G20 presidency into a global triumph has reached fever pitch in the run-up to the leaders' summit this weekend.

Delhi has been adorned with huge billboards and posters - displaying Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image alongside a message welcoming delegates - signifying India's readiness to embrace the world.

And all of this effort will finally come down to the leaders' summit and their ability to release a joint declaration that signals broader agreement on issues of global concern.

India has been pushing hard for a declaration - if this summit ends without one, it will be a first. But that's not going to be easy with a G20 that is divided on many issues, the biggest being the Ukraine war.

The war also loomed large over last year's G20 summit in Indonesia, but the group was able to put together a hurried declaration that noted the differences within the G20 over Ukraine.

But positions have hardened since then - Russia and China may not agree to give such concessions and the West, led by the US, will also not accept anything less than a clear condemnation of the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are not attending and that might make decision-making a little harder. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and China's Premier Li Qiang will represent their countries instead, but they may not have the political heft to make last-minute concessions without consulting their leaders.

The G20 foreign and finance ministers' meetings also ended without a joint declaration earlier this year.

But India will still hope that the Ukraine issue doesn't derail the concerns of the Global South - developing countries - that it wants to discuss.

The G20 countries account for 85% of the world's economic output and 75% of world trade. They contain two-thirds of the global population. India has repeatedly said the group has a responsibility towards countries not present in the G20, and in doing so, has established itself as the voice of the Global South.

The African Union's presence at the G20 has further bolstered India's position on the needs of the developing world.

"The issues like debt, rising food and energy prices have been exacerbated by the war and the pandemic. India and other developing countries in the G20 would want industrialised economies to contribute capital to resolve these issues," says Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

But an agreement on these issues is also not certain. Take debt refinancing for example - India and other developing countries have been advocating that rich countries and institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should give relief to nations that have been struggling to repay their loans.

But no negotiation on this can happen without discussing China. David Malpass, president of the World Bank until recently, said in December that the world's poorest countries owed $62bn in annual debt service to creditors and that two-thirds of this was owed to China.

This has put many countries at risk of default, exacerbating poverty and skyrocketing food and energy prices.

China's lending practices have been often described as predatory by Western officials - an allegation Beijing rejects.

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