THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCALPSE FROM THE "SHOCK LETTER" (PART 3 THE BLACK HORSE).

 The Four Horsemen

Part Three – The Black Horse

Before I get started, November 9th marks the beginning of my life in Asia. It was 30 years ago, in 1992, when I landed in Israel and began studying and then working in Jerusalem. Today, I’m on the other side of Asia, in Taiwan and can hardly believe the twists and turns God has led me through.

If you choose to follow God, He will take you places, and you will see things that you never expected.

Having said that, it was a good thing that I did not know all this when I set foot on the tarmac at Ben Gurion airport. I might have run screaming in the other direction.

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Back in the 1950s, M. King Hubbert realized that we had a problem. Oil fields were declining at a rather fast rate, and it looked like that rate was becoming predictable. So, Dr. Hubbert took his observations and developed a model to forecast US oil production. That model predicted a peak in US oil production in the early ’70s. And, that is exactly what happened.

Dr. Hubbert then expanded his model to try and forecast global oil production. He predicted that oil would peak in 1995. However, he did say that manipulations by Arab oil companies might shift the peak out to 2005.

Here’s a clip of M. King Hubbert describing global oil production in 1975:

1976 Hubbert Clip

Then in 1998, two petroleum geologists, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère, took another look at Hubbert’s Peak and updated his model. According to their calculations the peak in oil production would happen in 2005. And, right on schedule, oil volumes began falling in late 2005.

This decrease in oil production led to a dramatic increase in gasoline prices in 2006, which precipitated the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. I had just just returned to US from Israel in late 2006, and remember looking at the price of gas as I was filling up my car.

I knew immediately that there was no way that the US economy could survive such a high price of gasoline. And, sure enough, it didn’t. 

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